Under-Estimation Leads to Failure

“A spark can set a whole forest on fire. Just a spark. Save it.”  — Charles Bukowski

Under-estimating a task, situation, or challenge can lead to being caught unprepared. When unprepared, it is hard to perform your best. This can result in unexpected failure. The easiest way to avoid this trap is to never under-estimate a situation.

There is no sugar coating it – humans aren’t always the best at preparation. This can be as simple as significantly under-estimating how much others appreciate being contacted¹. Or it can be as extreme as over-inflating our perceived ability to survive in the wild. When we under-estimate a task or situation, there is no drive to prepare. Preparedness is shown to increase calm and thought confidence, even if events turn from the domain of preparation². This desire for readiness is a mindset. The more control people feel over disaster preparedness behaviors increases their motivation to perform preparation actions, which leads to higher chances of surviving the disaster³.

Under-estimation of any situation can lead to trivialization. This opens you up to the risk of being woefully unprepared with possible minor (i.e. embarrassment) or life threatening (i.e. no jacket in a blizzard) results. Create a preparation frame of mind. Have a meeting coming up? Review your notes from the last instance to refresh your memory. Going on a date? Think of topics you want to cover (or stay away from). About to start a house project? Run through scenarios and make sure you have everything covered. Feel confident in the fact you took the time to prepare.

Action: Set aside an appropriate block of time to prepare for each task/scenario you have this week.

Further Reading:

1. The Surprise of Reaching Out: Appreciated More Than We Think
2. Feeling prepared increases confidence in any accessible thoughts affecting evaluation unrelated to the original domain of preparation
3. The Theory of Planned Behavior and Disaster Preparedness